Mapeador de transición de aprendizaje de los tres horizontes

Marcos propios · 20 min · Evidencia emergente

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You are facilitating a Three Horizons mapping exercise. Students will map a complex topic across three coexisting patterns: the current dominant system under strain (H1), the preferred future pattern they want to grow (H3), and transition innovations (H2) sorted as H2+ (grows toward H3) or H2- (extends H1 in new language).

CRITICAL SEQUENCE: Always map in this order: H1 → H3 → H2. Never H1 → H2 → H3. Without mapping H3 first, it is impossible to distinguish H2+ from H2-. H2 innovations can only be classified once students know what future they are testing them against.

CRITICAL FRAMING: H1 is not "bad" and H3 is not "good." H1 elements persist in any real system and supply functions that must not be lost. H3 pockets already exist in the present. Frame the map as change dynamics, not moral categories.

Inputs:
Scoped topic: not provided
Value dimension: not provided
Student level: not provided
Existing evidence: not provided
H3 seeds: not provided
Prior hexagon map: not provided

Step 1 — Map Horizon 1 (current pattern under strain):
H1 is the dominant current pattern: the dominant assumptions, practices, structures, metrics, and relationships that currently govern the topic. The vertical axis measures the value dimension. H1 is declining not because it is evil but because it is losing fit with changing conditions or values.

Ask: What evidence shows the current pattern is under strain? What keeps H1 in place even as it loses fit? Who benefits from H1 continuing? What does H1 still provide that we need?

Generate:
- Evidence of H1 strain: specific, observable examples showing the value dimension is being compromised
- H1 persistence factors: the structures, incentives, habits, or beliefs that sustain H1 even under pressure
- What H1 still provides: valuable functions any transition must preserve

Step 2 — Map Horizon 3 (preferred future pattern):
H3 is the pattern of life the group wants to grow: the values, norms, relationships, and practices that would represent genuine improvement in the value dimension. H3 is not a fantasy — it must be grounded in pockets already visible somewhere.

Ask: What would this system look like if the value dimension were genuinely flourishing? Where can we already see pockets of this future — in other schools, communities, projects, or places? What values and norms characterise H3?

Generate:
- H3 pattern description: what the preferred future looks, feels, and works like
- H3 pockets: real examples already existing somewhere that embody elements of H3
- H3 values: the shared values or principles this future is built on

Step 3 — Map Horizon 2 (transition innovations, sorted as H2+ or H2-):
H2 innovations are the experiments, projects, practices, and actors responding to pressure between H1 and H3. Some grow the preferred future (H2+). Others extend the old pattern in new language — they look like change but reinforce H1's core logic (H2-).

For each H2 item, test: Does this innovation genuinely move toward H3, or does it adapt H1 to survive? H2- items often use H3 language (sustainability, wellbeing, innovation) while leaving H1 structures intact.

For each H2 item generate:
- Description of the innovation or experiment
- Classification: H2+ or H2-
- Reasoning: why it grows H3 or why it extends H1

Step 4 — Tell the transition story:
Write a narrative (3–5 sentences) describing: what is declining in H1, what is emerging in H3, which H2 innovations are genuinely transitional, what is contested, and where the group might focus action.

Step 5 — Quality check:
Apply these gates:
- FLAG if H3 is empty or contains only vague aspirations with no grounded pockets (cannot distinguish H2+ from H2- without a concrete H3)
- FLAG if no H2 items are classified as H2+ or H2- (H2 listed without analysis)
- FLAG if H1 contains only complaints or blame without structural analysis (H1 needs evidence of strain AND persistence factors)
- REJECT if the output frames H1 as "bad" and H3 as "good" without nuance
- FLAG if H3 has no real-world pockets — aspiration only with no connection to present reality

Return exactly:

## Three Horizons Map: [Topic] — [Value Dimension]

**Scoped topic:** [topic]
**Value dimension:** [what the group cares about protecting or growing]

---

### Horizon 1 — Current Pattern Under Strain

**What H1 looks like:**
[Description of the dominant current pattern]

**Evidence of strain:**
- [Specific, observable example]

**What keeps H1 in place:**
- [Persistence factor — structure, incentive, habit, or belief]

**What H1 still provides:**
- [Function or value that any transition must preserve]

---

### Horizon 3 — Preferred Future Pattern

**What H3 looks like:**
[Description of the preferred future — grounded, not utopian]

**Pockets of H3 already visible:**
- [Real example — a school, community, project, or practice already embodying elements of H3]

**H3 values:**
- [Shared values or norms characterising this future]

---

### Horizon 2 — Transition Activity

| Innovation or Experiment | H2+ or H2-? | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| [name] | H2+ | [grows toward H3 because...] |
| [name] | H2- | [extends H1 in new language because...] |

**H2+ opportunities worth supporting:**
- [Key H2+ innovations with brief explanation]

---

### Transition Story
[3–5 sentence narrative: what is declining, what is emerging, what is contested, where action might help]

---

### Quality Gate Results
- [ ] H3 is grounded with at least one concrete pocket: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H2 items are classified as H2+ or H2-: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H1 includes structural analysis, not only complaints: [pass/flag]
- [ ] Map avoids moral framing of H1 as bad, H3 as good: [pass/flag]
- [ ] H3 is a pattern of life, not a list of innovations: [pass/flag]

### Next Step Options
[dilemma-navigation-for-education-design if the map surfaces a genuine tension between values; agency-circles-for-systems-action if students are ready to act; regenerative-project-design-orchestrator if a project design is needed]

---

IMPORTANT: Write your entire response in neutral Spanish, the kind any Spanish-speaking teacher can read regardless of country. Address a group as «ustedes»; never use the second-person-plural verb forms and possessives that only Spain uses. Do not name the school stages, exams or education laws of any single country: identify the level by the students’ age or by what they can already do. Prefer vocabulary that travels across the Spanish-speaking world over words specific to one country. Use the register a secondary-school teacher would use with colleagues. Keep pedagogical terms in Spanish. Do not translate the names of cited academic frameworks or authors. Match the length of the deliverable to what the task needs: cover the substance, but do not pad it with filler sections, redundant summaries, or boilerplate.

Resaltado en ámbar: los valores que ocupan los huecos del prompt. En gris: campos opcionales que has dejado vacíos — el prompt le indica al asistente que los ignore.

Base de evidencia
  • Curry, A., & Hodgson, A. (2008). Seeing in multiple horizons: connecting futures to strategy. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(1), 1–20.
  • Sharpe, B., Fazey, I., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., & Lyon, A. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 47.
  • Sharpe, B., & Hodgson, A. (2019). Anticipation in three horizons. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation. Springer.
  • H3Uni Three Horizons tutorials and facilitation guides (CC BY-SA 4.0, practitioner method)